Question #143
The Daniel Markel in question is profiled at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Markel. Some additional details about the murder are provided in links within http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2014/07/21/legal-academic....
Kn-X takes your $20.00 (through PayPal).
.
Kn-X provides your belief answer to the person who wants to know. Let's call her Q. Let's call her Q.
Your belief answer will not be revealed to anyone paying less than unwilling to pay you $20.00.
You will be able to submit evidence supporting your answer. Kn-X will review your evidence within 24 hours.
If your evidence is accepted, Kn-X will return your $20.00, pay you up to $20.00 more, and provide your belief answer to the person who wants to know.
If Kn-X does not accept your evidence, your answer will remain available for purchase, backed by your $20.00, to anyone willing to pay pay you $20.00.
On or before , Kn-X will determine the Final Answer. the accuracy of the answer you provide.
If you have increased Q's belief in the Final Answer, are right, Kn-X will return your $20.00, and will pay you up to $20.00 more. For example, if the Final Answer turns out to be "", and if Q's belief in this answer before your input was less than your belief of %, you will make money.
If you have decreased Q's belief in the Final Answer, Kn-X will return to you less than the If you are wrong, you will lose the $20.00 you have wagered.
There are three four possible outcomes to your wager.
- If nobody wants to know the answer to this question by , Kn-X will return your $20.00 (minus PayPal's fee) to you the following day. you will neither make nor lose money.
- If someone (Q) purchases your answer and Q does not submit the Final Answer by , , Kn-X will return your $20.00 to you the following day. you will neither make nor lose money.
- If Q submits a Final Answer and Kn-X approves it, and if you have increased the belief in the Final Answer, are right, Kn-X will return your $20.00, and will pay you up to $20.00 more. For example, if the Final Answer turns out to be "", and if Q's belief in this answer before your input was less than your belief of %, you will make money.
- If you have decreased Q's belief in the Final Answer, Kn-X will return to you less than the If Q submits a Final Answer and Kn-X approves it, and you are wrong, you will lose the $20.00 you have wagered.
Aligning incentives is very important to us at Kn-X. Note:
- Q has no incentive to provide an intentionally incorrect Final Answer.
- We at Kn-X will go out of business if we do a poor job weighing Q's evidence.
If you ever think one of our judgments is in error, we want to hear from you. Our business relies on our getting this right.
You agree to the Kn-X Terms of Service.
Kn-X pays you (and returns money to you) by crediting your Kn-X balance. You may withdraw from your Kn-X balance (to your PayPal account) at any time.
You are not providing information that would be unlawful if provided in person, on a blog, by email, by text, or over the phone. You are not breaching a fiduciary duty or other similar duty of trust or confidence.
Kn-X is the final arbiter for payouts. You acknowledge and agree that all decisions of Kn-X are binding. You disclaim any rights of action against Kn-X.
Kn-X takes your $20.00 (through PayPal) — the $20.00 you are willing to pay, plus a $20.00 deposit.
If nobody answers your question by , Kn-X will return your $20.00 (minus PayPal's fee) the following day.
If an answer backed by evidence approved by Kn-X appears before , Kn-X will send you that answer. If not, Kn-X will return your $20.00 (minus PayPal's fee) the following day.
— the $20.00 you are willing to pay, plus a $20.00 deposit.
Kn-X will deduct $20.00 from your Kn-X balance and show you the answer. The answer you receive will be A person's full name (first and last). The answerer has provided evidence Kn-X finds compelling.
If someone answers your question by and provides evidence that Kn-X approves, Kn-X will deduct $20.00 from your Kn-X balance and provide you with updated beliefs. the answer. The answer you receive will be A person's full name (first and last).
Kn-X will deduct $20.00 from your Kn-X balance and provide you with a (probablistic) answer an answer to this question. The answer you receive will be A person's full name (first and last).
Kn-X will return your $ deposit Kn-X uses your Final Answer to reward (or penalize) the people who provided your answer, based on how they changed your initial beliefs.
Kn-X will determine the Final Answer accuracy of the answer you receive
If the answer you receive turns out to be wrong, Kn-X will return your $20.00. If your initial belief is more accurate than the belief you receive, Kn-X will return between half and the full amount of your $20.00. If your initial beliefs turn out to be more accurate than the beliefs you receive, Kn-X will return between half and the full amount of your $20.00.
You agree to the Kn-X Terms of Service.
Kn-X returns money to you by crediting your Kn-X balance. You may withdraw from your Kn-X balance (to your PayPal account) at any time.
BeliefsAnswers are provided anonymously. Some users of the site may have motives, external to the economics of Kn-X, to provide inaccurate beliefsanswers. Kn-X maintains the system of incentives explained on this site. Kn-X does not independently verify beliefsanswers.
You are not soliciting (nor, in the content of your question, providing) information that would be unlawful for you to solicit (or provide) in person, on a blog, by email, by text, or over the phone. You will not buy or sell shares of publicly traded companies based on the information you obtain.
Kn-X is the final arbiter for payouts. You acknowledge and agree that all decisions of Kn-X are binding. You disclaim any rights of action against Kn-X.